Generative artificial intelligence (Gen-AI) is expected to transform India's workforce by improving productivity rather than causing widespread job losses, according to a new report by Goldman Sachs. The report estimates that AI could automate between 9% and 17% of tasks currently performed by India's non-agricultural workforce, with a baseline estimate of 13% to 15% task automation over the coming decade.
Despite growing concerns over automation, Goldman Sachs believes that only 8% to 12% of non-agricultural jobs face a meaningful risk of being replaced by AI. In contrast, 42% to 48% of jobs are expected to benefit from AI as a tool that enhances efficiency, supports decision-making and improves productivity rather than replacing human workers.
Knowledge-based industries such as education, healthcare, finance, professional services and media are likely to experience the greatest benefits, as AI can assist with data analysis, diagnostics, content creation and routine administrative tasks. However, occupations involving physical labour, including construction, manufacturing and mining, are expected to remain relatively less affected by automation.
The report also highlights that AI could increase India's annual labour productivity growth by 0.4 percentage points, potentially rising to 0.8 percentage points if AI technology advances more rapidly than expected.
While India's IT sector has seen workforce adjustments in some large companies, the broader technology ecosystem continues to expand through Global Capability Centres (GCCs). Goldman Sachs identifies infrastructure—not talent—as India's biggest AI challenge, noting that limited data-centre capacity, computing power and electricity supply could slow AI adoption unless significant investments are made in digital and physical infrastructure.
