Bangladesh goes to the polls on Thursday in a parliamentary election that could carry deeper strategic implications for India than any vote in its immediate neighbourhood in recent years. With Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League absent from the contest, New Delhi’s best hope for a pragmatic reset in relations with Dhaka now appears to rest with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) — a longtime rival of Hasina and historically one of India’s most difficult interlocutors in Bangladesh.

India was left diplomatically wrong-footed by the 2024 mass uprising that brought down the Hasina government, ending a long period of close bilateral alignment. In the aftermath, New Delhi recalibrated its outreach, recognising that the BNP, led by Khaleda Zia’s political legacy and now headed by her son Tarique Rahman, offered the most viable pathway to legitimacy, stability and continuity in Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape.

Over the past year, India quietly intensified engagement with BNP leaders, signalling a willingness to move beyond past antagonisms. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s offer of medical assistance to Khaleda Zia shortly before her death, followed by a personal letter of condolence and outreach to Tarique Rahman — conveyed through External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar — underscored New Delhi’s effort to rebuild trust. These moves gained significance despite the sensitive backdrop of Sheikh Hasina’s continued presence in India.

The election is expected to witness a tight bipolar contest between the BNP-led alliance and a rival coalition of 11 parties, making the outcome both uncertain and consequential. For India, the stakes extend beyond immediate political outcomes to broader concerns of regional stability, border management, security cooperation and economic engagement in eastern South Asia.

As Dhaka prepares to vote, New Delhi is watching closely — aware that the results could reshape not just Bangladesh’s domestic politics, but the trajectory of India–Bangladesh relations in the post-Hasina era.